How will Switzerland's population change in the next 30 years?

Less than a year after it was confirmed that the population of Switzerland had hit the 9 million mark, a new study from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO) has found that the country is already heading towards the next big milestone. 10 million people are expected to call the country home by 2041.

Swiss population to hit 10 million by 2041

The government has predicted that Switzerland’s population will continue to grow in the coming years. The population is expected to increase by 0,5 percent a year from the end of 2024 to the end of 2055.

In 2041, the population of Switzerland is set to hit 10 million for the first time, and will rise to 10,5 million by 2055 - for reference, it took 12 years for the population to increase from 8 million to 9 million. With the birth rate continuing to decline, the FSO suggested that there will be more deaths than births from 2035 onwards, with population growth coming entirely from migration.

In its “high” scenario - where the birth rate gradually increases and immigration also rises - Switzerland will hit the 10 million mark by 2033 and will sport 11,7 million residents by 2055. By contrast, in its “low” scenario, where the birth rate remains low and migration also falls, the population will hit a peak of 9,3 million people in 2042, after which it will decline.

According to the FSO, Lucerne, St. Gallen, Vaud, Geneva, Thurgau and Aargau will see the fastest population growth at 20 percent over 30 years. By contrast, Jura, Neuchâtel, Schaffhausen, and Appenzell Ausserrhoden will see the slowest growth at less than 2 percent in three decades. Despite the boom, the Swiss population will still be concentrated around Zurich and Lake Geneva.

Population growth causes alarm among some in Switzerland

In recent years, migration and population growth in Switzerland have become significant political issues. This is seen most vividly in the No 10 Million Switzerland! or Sustainability Initiative from the Swiss People’s Party (SVP).

The upcoming referendum would require the government to take radical measures to curb immigration, if the population rises above 9,5 million people before 2050, such as barring entry to new migrants - although it's unclear how this would be achieved given the free movement of people policy between Switzerland and the EU.

Supporters argue that Switzerland has failed to accommodate high rates of migration, especially when it comes to the housing market. With demand high and supply low, the country has failed to keep pace by building new homes to rent and buy, leading to soaring costs - the country was recently rated as having one of the worst housing shortages in Europe.

Is Switzerland headed toward a demographic crisis?

But within the FSO data itself lies one of the main reasons why high rates of migration are vital. Though the number of workers in Switzerland will rise by 12,5 percent to 5,8 million people by 2055, the study also predicts that the number of people living in retirement will rise from 20 percent of the population today to a quarter of all residents by 2055, or approximately 2,7 million people.

The ratio of retirees to workers - vital in determining whether pensions and other social security programmes can be paid for in their current form in the future - also makes for alarming reading. Even in the FSO’s “high scenario”, where the country blows past the SVP’s 10 million limit in 2033 and sports a population of over 11,6 million people in 2055, the number of employees paying for each retiree will go from 2,6 in 2024 to just two in 2055.

Therefore, if the Sustainability Initiative passes and its goals are achieved, cuts and reforms to benefits are inevitable.

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